• 抄底之王

比特幣ETF投資者在抄底




2021.06.12

This past year has seen $9.3bn invested in Bitcoin via the ETFs (and funds), and they now collectively own 809,105 BTC between them. That is 4.7% of the known active total Bitcoin supply and has become the single most important, measurable source of demand.

在過去的一年裡,93億美金的資金體量通過ETF(和基金)的形式,投資了比特幣。現在他們總共擁有809,105個BTC,佔已知比特幣活躍流通供應的4.7%,此形式已經成為了BTC最重要的、可衡量的需求來源。


More so than ever before, the money flowing into Bitcoin from ETFs has been the main driver of the recent bull market. The funds saw peak BTC holdings on 12 May 2021, with 8,000 BTC leaving over the rest of the month. That wasn’t the only factor for a weak May, but it was certainly high on the list.

相比以往任何時候,從ETF流入比特幣的資金,是本輪牛市更主要的驅動因素。基金們的BTC持有總量,在2021年5月12日達到峰值,在該月隨後有8000枚BTC流出。這並不是五月BTC市場疲軟的唯一因素,但它肯定是高度相關的。


The good news is that we have just seen an inflow of 325 BTC, which isn’t vast. But it’s not an outflow and could mean those institutional investors are buying the dip.

They would have been smart to wait for the Musk months (February to April) to pass. They brought unwelcome hype, which was followed by misery. It could be that the institutions see the value and will accumulate Bitcoin whenever it tests the $30,000 area.

I can’t be sure they will, but what has surprised me the most is how only 8,000 BTC was sold in May, given the 50% price fall. I’d have expected more panic selling. That there wasn’t really does suggest the 809,105 BTC are in pretty strong hands.

好消息是,我們剛剛看到了325BTC的流入,雖然這並不大。但這不是流出,並不能顯示機構投資者正在下跌中買入。

他們很聰明,一直在等待“馬斯克月”(2月到4月)過去。 “馬斯克月”帶來了不受歡迎的炒作,隨之而來的是痛苦。這些機構意識到BTC的價值,可能會在30000美元測試位附近積累比特幣。

我不確定他們會不會這麼做,但最讓我驚訝的是,鑑於價格下跌了50%,5月份其實只賣出了8000個BTC,而我當初預計會有更多的恐慌性賣出,因為並沒有證據真正表明這809,105個BTC掌握在相當強大的手中。

現在全是ETFs了

The other point I’d like to make about the fund universe is how closed-ended funds have rapidly morphed into ETFs. The latest example comes from 3iQ (QBTC).

In recent days, a third of the fund was redeemed (approx. 7,999 BTC). Yet rather than the money leaving Bitcoin, 2,963 BTC immediately showed up in the 3iQ CoinShares ETF (BTCQ).

關於基金領域,我想說的另一點是,封閉式基金是如何迅速轉變為ETF的。最新的示例來自於3iQ(QBTC)。

最近幾天,三分之一的基金份額被贖回了(大約7999個BTC)。然而同時,2963個BTC立即出現在3iQ CoinShares Bitocoin ETF(BTCQ) 中。



3iQ, Galaxy, Purpose and ninepoint have all taken advantage of Canadian ETF rules that allow them to create and redeem shares at net asset value, without the risk of the shares trading at a discount, as seen by Grayscale (GBTC). Investors have lapped up the opportunity to switch from a closed-ended fund to an ETF structure, given the chance.

GBTC have stated their intent to change their structure into an ETF in the future, but it remains unclear when that will be allowed to pass.

The good news for Bitcoiners is that ETFs are a much better option for investors than closed-ended funds. In Europe, we have only ever had ETFs, and now North America is shifting across, with Canada taking the lead.

There are several ETFs out there, and each one has a motivated sales force. More ETFs are coming too, and I see this continued institutionalisation as supportive.

You can see why $32,000 seems to have some support given this eight-year lookback. I started the regression at the 2013 peak. The annualised trend is a very convenient 100% per annum, with $32,000 BTC, bang in the middle of the range.

3iQ, Galaxy, Purpose and ninepoint,都利用了加拿大的ETF規則,該規則允許他們以資產淨值創建和贖回股票,而沒有股票折扣交易的風險,正如灰度(GBTC)。基於這個機會,投資者們已經建立了從封閉式基金轉變為ETF配置的通道。

GBTC已經表示,他們打算在未來將他們的信託結構更改成ETF,但目前仍不清楚這個申請何時會被通過。

對比特幣者來說,好消息是,ETF對投資者來說是一個比封閉式基金更好的選擇。在歐洲只有ETF,現在北美正在轉移中,加拿大已取得領先。

目前已經有幾個比特幣ETF,每一個都有一個積極的銷售力量。更多的ETF將會到來,我認為這種持續的製度化是具有支持性的。

你可以看到為什麼$32,000價位似乎有一些支持。我回顧了2013年的高峰時期,100%增長的年度趨勢非常明顯,$32000價位似乎在範圍中線等待爆發。

比特幣仍然有翻倍趨勢


I do not know how long 100% per annum can last. For a few more years perhaps, but not forever.

The funny thing is that ByteTree’s methodology has consistently remained in the $30k to $40k range this year. That brought some criticism when the price was $60,000, but my take would be that price didn’t deserve to be there. To be worth that much, more networks activity would be required, and it didn’t come.

Fair Value was right, while price was wrong.

Price duly obeyed ByteTree’s model and has drifted back towards our target. The bad news is that our target has shifted lower since, as network activity has dried up. The now sits at a miserable $19,277 Fair Value target.

我不知道年度100%增長率能持續多久。也許還有幾年,但不是永遠。

有趣的是,ByteTree的方法論,今年一直保持在$30k到$40k的範圍內。當價格突破$60k時,這帶來了一些批評,但我認為這個價格不應該出現。為了支撐這個價位,需要更高的網絡活躍度,但它並沒有出現。

所以Fair Value模型是正確的,而$60k的價格是錯誤的。

BTC價格正如預期地遵從了ByteTree的模型,並回到了我們的目標價位區間。壞消息是,隨著網絡活動的枯竭,我們的目標也有所下降。短期指標,現在正指向一個悲慘的$19,277公允價值目標。


For a sustained Bitcoin recovery, we need to see more network activity; it’s as simple as that. In the meantime, I am more inclined to preserve capital than to buy the dip.

為了實現持續的比特幣恢復,我們需要看到更多的網絡活動。與此同時,我更傾向於保存資金,而不是抄底買入。

作者:Charlie Morris

編譯:Charles

2021.06.09

文章來源:https://bytetree.com/insights/2021/06/bitcoin-etf-investors-buy-the-dip/

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